Why doesn't the Fire Spread simulation match what I'm seeing?
Fire Spread is a prediction, not a live observation. It estimates how a wildfire could evolve based on the information available at the time the simulation was run.
Fire Spread is a decision-support tool, not a guarantee of where the fire will burn.
It helps identify potential spread scenarios so operators can anticipate risks, prioritize monitoring, and support planning.
Consider generating a new simulation when:
- 🛰️ A new satellite detection is available
- 🌬️ Weather conditions have changed significantly
- 🔥 The fire has expanded beyond the predicted perimeter
- 🚒 Major suppression activities have occurred
🔍 What can cause differences?
🌬️ Weather changed
- Wind speed or direction changed
- Humidity or temperature evolved
🌲 Fuel conditions
- Vegetation varies across the landscape
- Fuel moisture changes over time
🚒 Fire suppression
- Firefighters created containment lines
- Aerial suppression slowed the fire
- Roads or natural barriers stopped the spread
🛰️ New observations
- The simulation is based on the latest available detection, not continuous tracking.
🔥 Fire behavior is unpredictable
- Spot fires
- Ember transport
- Sudden flare-ups
- Local terrain effects